Aug 22nd, 2005
Return to Night City (Part 4: Probabilistic Confessions of Serial Daters and the St. Petersburg Paradox)
Six years before my friend and I saw them again at a local watering hole, the deadly quartet began as a regular lunch group of college girls who one day before Stat class, we overheard having a heated conversation:
"I don’t believe in dating. I think the odds of finding a remotely decent guy out there is close to nil and I’m not going to debase myself by getting all touched up for a dinner or a one night stand for a potential pig," Tangerine (or Tanj for short), who was also the tallest of the four, was up on her feet, arms akimbo to emphasize her exasperation the thought she just described.
"Hmm? Can you qualify that? What is ‘remotely decent’? What is ‘pig’?" Violet, oldest of the group, was just beginning to have enough confidence to participate–having just finished the homework assignment for the next class.
"I say, you can’t play if you don’t bet. If you don’t bet you can’t win." Jade, who was second tallest and had meztiza looks, was also arguably the prettiest of the four–at least in the eyes of the eighteen men (running total) she has dated in the past six months.
"All I’m saying is that my life as I see it is pretty ok now–I do what I want, I go where I want, I read what I want. Why should I gamble that away?"
"But Tanj, don’t you ever get lonely? I don’t know about you, but I don’t want to die alone." Jade was slipping into her "weird-mode" where she talked in an eerie sing-song voice.
"You know, Jade, you’ll never convince Tanj that way. You guys are coming from opposite poles. Just think about it, rather than die lonely you’re gambling to end up with a pig–so to Tanj, you’re a lover of risk. Meanwhile, in your eyes, Tanj prefers a lonely life, to the chance of more fulfilling companionship–so it looks like she wants to avoid a better gain. If I put the two of you together, so much for rational thinking."
"That’s rich, Ate Vi. So are you going to make us a stat problem, why don’t you?" It was Jade’s turn to stand up from her seat.
Tanj took a different tack. "Wait, let’s describe it in a language that Violet understands. Let’s say for the sake of this sick topic that our goals are the same: to end up with a nice decent guy–"
"Hey–qualify!" Violet interrupted.
"Okay– smart, handsome, caring, good pedigree, not gay, not taken. How’s that?" Tanj was deadly serious.
"Ok."
"Just imagine the combined chance of that one. Meaning, hard enough to find a handsome guy, but a imagine handsome guy who’s not gay and not taken." Tanj, still serious, was shaking her head. "Granted there are quite a number of couples (and dare I say, triples) out there. Still I think despite the number of relationships, really good relationships are rarer than we’d like to think."
"You know I’ll write a book about you guys one day. And all of your biases." Violet was looking at her notes, pretending to review her work. "On the other hand, if you were a doctor seeing a cancer patient about a treatment that has an 80% success rate, would you tell your patient that he has a 2-in-10 chance of dying or an 8-in-10 chance of surviving? People will hear what they want to hear."
"You know guys, you think too much. Whatever you do, just remember that there’s always that one special person out there for each one of us. I hope you’re not too busy to see him when he happens by." Amber, youngest and shortest of the four, normally kept mum, especially when Tanj was into her usual monologues.
"Amen Amber. While Tanj may not believe in the chances of finding a good relationship, I don’t believe in not trying." Jade was a little relieved to have Tanj interrupted. "Tanj misses the while point. It’s not about quantity, but quality. I’m not in it to have as many boyfriends as I can–"
"Hah, can we have a survey on that?" Tanj found another opponent. "Amber, when are you going to realise that Paul and you are a fluke! Don’t get me wrong, I’m happy for the both of you. But still, just because you were lucky enough to find that deep relationship doesn’t mean we would–or should."
Violet was beginning to pack her bag. "In Tanj’s defense, did you know that more people think the chances of them dying in Mindanao are lower than of them dying in Mindanao of a bullet fired by the NPA? Or of them losing their cellphone in general is lower vs. losing it at a holdup in an FX? Even if the latter is more specific. So it’s really true that most people might overestimate the chances of conjunctive events–in this case, finding the ideal guy vs. just finding a guy, just by trying."
"I think you’re just afraid to fail. Amber has a good point that no matter how many times you tried and failed, the moment you find that one meaningful person in your life, it more than makes up for everything." It was Jade’s turn to be serious.
"But Jade, think about it, what you said doesn’t make any sense. There’s a flaw in decision theory called the St. Petersburg Paradox– imagine a coin-toss game that paid more the longer it took for the coin to end up what you call. Say you called heads–if it came up heads on the first toss, you earn 1 peso. If it took two tosses, you earn 2 pesos, three tosses, you earn 4, and so on. Given a remote enough probability, the payout would be so great that you’d be willing to gamble anything to play it. Just like the odds of finding your mythical perfect guy–the longer it took to find him, since as you said that the one payoff would make up for all the losses, the more you would gamble to find him. Until you wake up one day and you realise you’ve given up your entire life. Especially if you end up marrying the wrong guy, which is more likely to happen than we’d like to admit. Real life just doesn’t work that way."
By this time, none of them seemed to be listening to Tanj.
Ten years after this fated conversation (which would make it roughly four years after we saw them in the bar), we would find out that the deadly quartet would continue to lead relatively "deadly" lives:
Tanj, ever the pessimistic idealist/realist, eventually joined a radical leftist feminist movement, and quickly rose to become one of the organisation’s spokeswomen. She currently plans to mastermind the dramatic ouster of a local government official, but is quite undecided on who to target (and exactly what cause to champion). In the interim, she and her fellow quasi-feminists busy themselves gathering blackmail material on local government officials–mostly by getting these dirty old men photographed and videoed in compromising situations with unknown women (who are also actually members of her own organisation). Consequently, all newly-inducted members are given new Nokia camera phones, just in case.
Amber, who got employed at an major IT multinational, broke up with her "soulmate" of 4 years when she was assigned to Canada where she lived a pretty mundane (albeit cold) life for a few weeks until she met a tall, blue-eyed stranger on an evening bus in Toronto. After a stuttering whirlwind romance lasting exactly one month they got married. She has since resigned her job and is now a housewife, adding a regular visit to her husband’s parent’s house in Quebec at least once every month to her somewhat less mundane (albeit occasionally awkward) life.
Jade, despite remaining single, is a full-time mother to two daughters–owing her first-born to the statistical improbability of a burst condom. She lives with her existing boyfriend (also the father of her second-born) in a small one-bedroom unit in a condominium building very near the Metro Rail Transit. She never knew who the father of her elder daughter was (although she has very strong suspicions about his identity)–but she sometimes dreams about suddenly meeting him again one day along the street. Once in a while, while she takes a crap, she fantisizes what their dialogue might be like.
Violet proceeded to take her Masters degree in Statistics. Her bestselling book, "The Probabilistic Confessions of Serial Daters" is on its third printing. Meanwhile, she is currently debating the marginal utility of beginning her second book (i.e. money) or getting back into the dating scene herself (i.e. sex, fulfillment, love, etc., sex, etc.). Currently, she lives alone in Cebu.
<End of Part 4>

